Tuesday, May 26, 2015

Drought affects electricity

A boat motors past Shasta Dam in 2014 at Lake Shasta, Calif. The reservoir is now filled to 50% of capacity, cutting the dams power production by about a third. (Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times/TNS)© Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times/TNS A boat motors past Shasta Dam in 2014 at Lake Shasta, Calif. The reservoir is now filled to 50% of capacity, cutting the dams power production by about a third. (Allen J. Schaben/Los Angeles Times/TNS)

Shasta Dam, more than 600 feet tall and gatekeeper of the largest man-made lake in California, was designed to perform two crucial functions: store water and generate power.

And for decades, the huge concrete dam has channeled water to cities and farms while generating up enough electricity to power more than 532,000 homes.

But after four years of drought, the reservoir is drained to 50 percent of capacity, cutting the dam's power production by about a third, according to federal reclamation officials.

The story is the same at many dams across California, where electricity production at some is expected to be less than 20 percent of normal because of low water levels.

The shortfall shouldn't cause brownouts, officials said, because California relies on dams for power far less than it did in past decades, due in part to the emergence of solar and wind energy.

But it does come at a price.

Hydropower, even with its diminished profile, is important to California's energy mix as a quick, reliable and inexpensive source of electricity — a buffer during times of peak demand.

A reduced supply from dams forces the grid operator to turn to more expensive sources of power, such as natural gas.

"Consumers have paid more than a billion dollars more for electricity than they otherwise would've. And our greenhouse gas emissions are higher than they would otherwise have been," said Peter Gleick, president of the Pacific Institute, an environmental study group in Oakland. "Over the last three years, and continuing this year, the costs are going to continue."

In the 1950s, hydropower supplied almost 60 percent of the state's electricity. Now, it provides 14 percent to 19 percent in a normal year, and even less during a drought — accounting for about 8 percent of the state's total power last year. Renewable energy, on the other hand, provided more than 20 percent, according to the California Energy Commission.

Making up the difference from less hydropower has not been cheap. The cost to Californian could have been as high as $1.4 billion from 2012 through 2014, according to a report by the Pacific Institute.

Renewable energy, especially solar, helped make up for about 55 percent of the reduction in hydroelectricity in 2013 and 2014, state officials said. Natural-gas-fired power made up the rest.

Burning more natural gas to compensate for the reduced hydropower led to an 8 percent increase in carbon dioxide emissions from California power plants over three years, said Gleick, author of the Pacific Institute study. Hydropower produces little to no air pollution.

"If the drought continues," Gleick said, "if one of the impacts is a permanent reduction in hydropower, we need to ramp up other renewables even more than we are."

Experts said California had little choice but to diversify its power generation beyond dams.

Even in normal years, the dams have been producing basically the same amount of hydropower as they did decades ago. Huge population growth since the 1950s meant the need for more electricity. Instead of building more dams to supply the extra electricity, officials found other sources of energy.

"We've built on all of the good dam sites in California. We're not going to expand hydrogeneration almost anywhere in the West," Gleick said. "So in an expanding energy demand situation, hydro just becomes a smaller and smaller fraction of the overall system."

Tuesday, May 19, 2015

Even the water

Dead fish float on the edge of Guanabara Bay, a part of which is the Rio 2016 Olympic Games sailing venue. Photo: Mario Tama / Getty Images

By Dom Phillips
15 May 2015

RIO DE JANEIRO (Washington Post) — The site chosen for the finals of next summer’s Olympic sailing races could not be more spectacular. Located at the mouth of Guanabara Bay, at the foot of Rio de Janeiro’s Sugarloaf Mountain, in full view of the crowds on Flamengo Beach, it is one of the most scenic places on the planet.

But there is one not-so-little problem.

“It is dirty,’’ said Brazilian Olympic windsurfer Ricardo Winicki. “It is one of the dirtiest places. And one of the most beautiful.’’

So notoriously grimy are the waters that Brazilian authorities are fighting to defend their selection of the site, which is polluted with raw sewage and garbage that floods into the 147-square-mile bay from open sewers and rain gullies — according to a 2014 report, 1.6 million homes in cities around the bay still lacked sewage collection.

When a top Brazilian government official recently staged a highly publicized swim to prove that the bay was safe, his televised stunt backfired — cameras on his boat captured scenes of floating garbage. An oceanographer explained that the official — Rio state environment secretary André Corrêa — had selected a point where the incoming tide offered the cleanest conditions in the bay. The pollution problems are just the latest facing Rio’s troubled Olympics. [more]

Polluted waters could force Rio de Janeiro to move 2016 Olympic races

Technorati Tags: South America,Brazil,pollution,fish decline,sewage

Monday, May 18, 2015

Sunny Spain

Incendio en una zona montañosa de Alicante

By HAROLD HECKLE
15 May 2015

MADRID (Associated Press) – Sunny Spain and Portugal are seeing record high temperatures for May, hitting levels normally only reached in mid-summer.

Up to 20 Spanish cities have been hit by scorching temperatures and several regional governments are worried about the effects the heat wave could have on crops, Spain's meteorological agency said Friday.

It said the eastern town of Xativa recorded 42.9 degrees Celsius (109.2 Fahrenheit) on Thursday, breaking a 2006 record of 40.1 degrees Celsius (104.2 Fahrenheit) set at Cordoba Airport.

Portugal also set a May record, with the southern city of Beja sizzling Wednesday in 40 degrees Celsius heat. Portugal's previous May high was 39.5 degrees Celsius (103.1 Fahrenheit) in 2011.

The stifling heat stretched across to Spain's Canary Islands in the Atlantic Ocean, where temperatures of 42.4 degrees Celsius (108.3 Fahrenheit) were recorded Wednesday at Lanzarote Airport.

The town of Pego in Spain's eastern Alicante region was fighting a wildfire Friday and authorities in the northeastern region of Catalonia warned of an increased danger of wildfires.

Catalonia is also assessing claims from farmers who say their crops have been damaged by the hot weather and the lack of rain. State broadcaster TVE said some estimates calculated the agricultural losses could exceed 50 million euros ($57 million).

Get the sunscreen: Spain, Portugal bake in record heat wave

Sunday, May 17, 2015

Dry season

Despite the summer rains, Sabesp still removes dead volume of water in the Atibainha dam, in Nazaré Paulista, by means of pumps. Photo: Marcos Alves / O Globo

By Tiago Dantas
8 April 2015

[Translation by Bing] SÃO PAULO (O Globo) – The main reservoirs of São Paulo, Rio and Belo Horizonte have reached the end of the summer with at least 40% less water than they had at the beginning of April 2014. Although consumption of the population has fallen, experts assess that the water crisis that began last year may worsen throughout the dry season, which should finish in October. Sanitation companies of these cities say they are investing to increase the supply of water.

The greatest variation occurred in São Paulo, where thousands of residents already complain of routine water shortage, although the Government won't admit that there is rationing. The rains that fell from January to March were within the historical average and caused flooding and falling trees in São Paulo, but were not enough to fill the dead volume of the Cantareira system-water reserve that needs pumps to be captured.

The Cantareira consists of five dams, which bring water to 5.5 million people in the metropolitan region of São Paulo. In April 1, 2014, these reservoirs amounted to 418.6 billion liters of water, taking into account the dead volume. After a year, the amount dropped to 187 billion litres, the equivalent of 44.6%. Throughout the crisis, the consumption of water in greater São Paulo fell from 73 thousand litres of water per second to 59,000 gallons per second.

To encourage a reduction in consumption, the supply Company of São Paulo (Sabesp) is offering bonuses to who saves and charging fine who has increased on account. In addition, the company reduces the pressure in the pipes, which decreases the leaks and causes the water doesn't come in higher and distant points. The company says that will make the interconnection of the eight systems that supply the greater São Paulo and which, until July, intends to deliver four works to increase the production of water, using rivers which hitherto were not used.

The reservoirs of the Paraíba do Sul River, where Rio de Janeiro draws water for 12 million people are also at lower levels than last year. At the end of March 2014, the rate was 40.7%. Since the measurement of April 1 stood at 16%. To face the crisis, the State water and Sewerage Company (Cedae) says it has invested in campaigns against the waste of water, in the execution of repairs in leaks, in replacement of pipelines and in combating illegal connections.

In Belo Horizonte, the amount of water reserved in the Manso River system, responsible for taking 1.5 million people fell about 40 percent in the last 12 months. If the dams were 131.7 billion liters in 2014, now are 79.4 billion. The Companhia de Saneamento do Estado de Minas Gerais (Copasa) is also betting on consumption reduction campaigns and a policy of reducing the losses that occur through leaks and illegal connections to get through the semester without rains.

“There is too much risk in the supply sector. In General, 75% of the Southeast rain falls between October and March. The logic is to keep water in these months in tanks for use in the dry period. But that didn't happen,” explains Carlos Tucci, professor of Hydraulic Research Institute of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS).

“And added to this quantity of water crisis, we will have a quality crisis. If not planned water security, it was not treated sewage, you don't see a strategy for sanitation in the country. It's not just a climate problem. The drought is part of climate variation, of events that happen every interval of decades. But its effect has to do with how Governments deal with this issue.”

According to the Director of the National Center for Natural disaster monitoring and alerting (Cenaden), Charles Noble, in the month of April, rain in the Southeast is usually half the average registered in March. The reduction of atmospheric temperature and air humidity help explain why the rain clouds don't form this time of year.

“One should not expect large volumes of rain in April, then comes a dry season and the rains just return in October. You can't make long-term forecast in Southeast yet, but this is the scenario.”

In an interview with the GLOBE, the President of the Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA) reminds that Espírito Santo and much of the northeast of Brazil are also suffering the effects of drought. Last Wednesday, the Ministry of national integration reported that 56 Northeastern cities are without water for four days and need to be supplied by water truck. The number of municipalities in situations of collapse can increase to 105 in the coming months.

“The crisis has completely different characteristics in each region-said Andreu. I can't pinpoint what is the situation of greater severity: in the Southeast or Northeast, where drought is already in the fourth year. All these regions deserve care and that your seizures are treated according to the specific features of each type of drought in each region.”

Situated in the North of Bahia, the Lake of Sobradinho, the largest reservoir in the Northeast, also faces a difficult situation. The level was just over 50% at the beginning of April last year to 17%. In this part of the São Francisco River, the water is also used to generate energy, another side of the water crisis.

Início da estação seca eleva alerta sobre crise hídrica no Sudeste

Technorati Tags: South America,Brazil,drought,freshwater depletion,global warming,climate change,deforestation,Amazon,rainforest

Saturday, May 16, 2015

Drought in Washington state

Comparison Plot of SNOTEL data at Stevens Pass, including snow water and precipitation data for current water year and 30-year normals. Graphic: NRCS

By Glenn Farley
11 May 2015

(KING 5 News) – Washington State's snow pack level is now averaging just 17 percent of normal, based on measurements made on May 1, 2015. That's down from a state wide average of 24 percent on April 1, which is the traditional benchmark for the peak of the state's snow pack.

"Worst snow drought we've ever seen," said Scott Pattee, the water supply specialist with the Natural Resource Conservation Service, part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The enemy is warmer temperatures, said Pattee.

Overall, fall and winter precipitation was about normal, just most of it didn't hang around as snow that melts out over the warmer months of the year. It's Pattee who tracks the state's snow pack both in the field and through the use of technology, what are called snowtel sites, many in remote locations, around the state and feed in data daily.

SNOTEL site at Stevens Pass, Washington, in early April 2015, during the worst snow drought on record. Photo: KING 5 News

On Monday Pattee said several regions around the state report no detectable snow, such as the mountains in the Central Puget Sound basin below 5,000 feet, and the one station that saw snow over the Olympic Mountains on May 5 now detects nothing.

In a place named Cox Valley, where there should be 80 inches of snow on the ground, there is nothing but a new crop of wildflowers coming up, said Pattee.

For the west side of the state one critical worry point is river flows that are seeing record lows for this date. The Washington State Department of Fish and Wildlife, which operates a number of hatcheries, says it's forming contingency plans for low water, says department spokesman Darren Friedel.

More bad news for Washington's drought

Technorati Tags: North America,global warming,climate change,drought,freshwater depletion

Friday, May 15, 2015

Worldwide Drought

The Jacarei river dam is part of São Paulo's Cantareira system of dams. Photo: Nelson Almeida / AFP / Getty Images

[Translation by Bing] SAO PAULO (O Globo) – The regulatory agency for sanitation and São Paulo Energy (Arsesp) authorized an increase of 15.24% water and sewer accounts of Companhia de Saneamento Basico do Estado de São Paulo (Sabesp).

According to the Agency, the new tariff values can be come into effect 30 days after publication in the Official Gazette of the State.

Sabesp had requested a rate increase of 22.7% in the water bill. However, is greater than the index that Arsesp had authorized in March: 13.87%.

The water crisis faced by the State led to a strong reduction in the company's revenues because the inhabitants of São Paulo sharply reduced its water consumption stimulated often by discounts.

In December 2014, water accounts in São Paulo suffered 6.49% adjustment.

Water bill will be 15% more expensive in São Paulo


em Português:

SÃO PAULO - A Agência Reguladora de Saneamento e Energia de São Paulo (Arsesp) autorizou um aumento de 15,24%% nas contas de água e esgoto da Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo (Sabesp).

De acordo com a agência, os novos valores tarifários podem ser entrar em vigor 30 dias após a publicação no Diário Oficial do Estado.

A Sabesp havia solicitado um reajuste de 22,7% na conta de água. Porém, é maior que o índice que a Arsesp havia autorizado em março: 13,87%.

A crise hídrica enfrentada pelo estado gerou forte redução na receita da companhia porque os habitantes de São Paulo reduziram bruscamente o seu consumo de água, estimulados muitas vezes por descontos.

Em dezembro de 2014, as contas de água em São Paulo sofreram reajuste de 6,49%.

Conta de água ficará 15% mais cara em São Paulo

Technorati Tags: Brazil,South America,drought,freshwater depletion,poverty,sewage

Thursday, May 14, 2015

Religion and Drought

A sign reads 'God is in control!', before a scene showing a dessicated wasteland caused by drought. Photoshop: Ben Dreyfuss; Backrgound: Galyna Andrushko/Shutterstock; Sign: Gustavo Frazao/Shutterstock. Graphic: Mother Jones

By Ben Dreyfuss
10 May 2015

(Mother Jones) – As you may know, there is a drought in California. The water? It's gone! The state? It's dry! The consequences? Very bad, indeed.

Where did the water go? I have no idea. I'm not a private detective who specializes in missing water.

Why did the water leave? No clue. Maybe it's climate change or almonds or squirrels or people or agricultural blah blah blah. Maybe the water saw Thelma & Louise and got inspired. Again: If you're looking for answers, you're reading the wrong writer. But you know who else has no idea why the drought happened? This idiot.

[Conservative journalist Bill Koenig] suggested that the drought in California is a result of the state’s support for same-sex marriage and abortion rights: “We’ve got a state that over and over again will go against the word of God, that will continually take positions on marriage and abortion and on a lot of things that are just completely opposed to the scriptures and unfortunately a lot of times when it starts in California it spreads to the rest of the country and even spreads to the rest of the world. So there very likely could be a drought component to this judgment.”

The end-times crowd always does this whenever there is a natural disaster or terror attack or anything. They always finger the same suspect: Gay people. 9/11? Gays. Katrina? Gays. Drought? Gays.

Social conservatives are the guy in the movie theater who keeps whispering to his friends, "I KNOW WHO DID IT." [more]

Religous Zealot Would Like to Talk to You For a Minute About the Drought

Technorati Tags: California,drought,religion,North America

Wednesday, May 13, 2015

Sea Levels

Unadjusted (bottom grouping) and adjusted (top grouping) GMSL time series (60 day filtered, annual and semi-annual removed) spanning the TOPEX period only showing the influence of different altimeter data processing selections. The rates shown span just the TOPEX side A and B period. Graphic: Watson, et al., 2015

By Joby Warrick
11 May 2015

(Washington Post) – Global sea levels are climbing at a faster rate than previously thought, according to a new analysis that underscores scientists’ concerns about the impact of melting glaciers and ice sheets near the Earth’s poles.

The new research published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change shows that the rate of sea-level rise appears to have accelerated over the past 15 years, a period in which scientists elsewhere documented a surprisingly rapidly retreat of some of Earth’s great ice masses, from Greenland to West Antarctica.

The findings appear to contradict earlier studies suggesting that the rate of sea-level rise had actually slowed slightly in recent years.

Australian scientists detected the increase in a study that analyzed decades of records from tidal gauges around the world, together with satellite data that show changes in water levels as well as subtle shifts in land formations.

Adjusted and unadjusted satellite altimeter global mean sea level (GMSL) time series (each arbitrarily offset and corrected for ocean-basin expansion). The inset graph shows acceleration. Graphic: Watson, et al., 2015Using these more precise measurements, the researchers discovered that scientists had slightly overstated sea-level rise that occurred in the 1990s, and underestimated the rate of increase since 1999, said Christopher Watson, a University of Tasmania geodesist who co-authored the study along with colleagues from the university and from Australia’s national science agency, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization.

The adjusted figures showed ocean levels rising over the past two decades at a rate of between 2.6 and 2.9 millimeters a year — or just over a tenth of an inch, he said. That rate is consistent with the projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the U.N.-sponsored scientific body regarded as the internationally accepted authority on global warming.

“The acceleration is also consistent with what we expect, given the increasing contributions from the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets,” Watson said in an e-mail. [more]

Sea levels are rising at faster clip as polar melt accelerates, new study shows

Tuesday, May 12, 2015

Why go to church?

An answer to 'Why go to church?'

If you're spiritually alive, you're going to love this!

    If you're spiritually dead, you won't want to read it.

    If you're spiritually curious, there is still hope!

A Church goer wrote a letter to the editor of a newspaper and complained that it made no sense to go to church every Sunday.   'I've gone for 30 years now,' he wrote, 'and in that time I have heard something like 3,000 sermons, but for the life of me, I can't remember a single one of them. So, I think I'm wasting my time and the priests are wasting theirs by giving sermons at all.'

This started a real controversy in the 'Letters to the Editor' column.
Much to the delight of the editor, it went on for weeks until someone wrote this clincher:

'I've been married for 30 years now. In that time my wife has cooked some 32,000 meals. But, for the life of me, I cannot recall the entire menu for a single one of those meals. But I do know this: They all nourished me and gave me the strength I needed to do my work.
If my wife had not given me these meals, I would be physically dead today.

Likewise, if I had not gone to church for nourishment, I would be spiritually dead today!'

When you are DOWN to nothing, God is UP to something!

Faith sees the invisible, believes the incredible and receives the impossible!

Thank God for our physical and our spiritual nourishment!

All right, now that you're done reading, send it on !
I think everyone should read this!
When Satan is knocking at your door, simply say, 'Jesus, could you get that for me, while I forward this message to your children?'

IF YOU CANNOT SEE GOD IN ALL, YOU CANNOT SEE GOD AT ALL !

B. I. B. L. E.  simply means:  Basic Instructions Before Leaving Earth!        

Did you know that......?   

          When you carry "the Bible", Satan has a head ache.

  • When you open it, he collapses;
  • When he sees you reading it, he loses his strength,    AND
  • When you stand on the Word of God, Satan can't hurt you!

          When you are about to forward this to others, the devil will discourage you.

         So go on !  Forward this to people who are DEAR to you and TRUST GOD.   

Monday, May 11, 2015

Religion and environment

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon addresses climate change summit. Photo: CNS

By Carol Glatz
29 April 2015

(Catholic Herald) – Dealing with climate change will take more than just global policies and agreements, it will also take a unified stance from the world’s religions, the secretary-general of the United Nations (UN) said at the Vatican.

To have development without destruction and “to transform our economies, however, we must first transform our thinking, and our values. In this, the world’s religions can provide valuable leadership,” UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon told religious leaders, scientists and scholars.

“If ever there were an issue that requires unity of purpose” among governments, private businesses, civil society and faith-based groups, “it is climate change,” he said, giving the opening address at a Vatican-sponsored workshop on Tuesday.

The Pontifical Academy of Sciences, together with the Pontifical Academy of Social Sciences, the Sustainable Development Solutions Network and Religions for Peace, organised an international gathering titled Protect the Earth, Dignify Humanity: The Moral Dimensions of Climate Change and Sustainable Development.

More than 100 experts, including Nobel laureates, from the world of science, politics, business and academics as well as religious leaders, came together to show support for a global consensus on the urgency of stemming climate change and promoting sustainable development.

Pope Francis, whose encyclical letter on the environment is completed and will be released in the coming months, met with Mr Ban for 30 minutes at the academy before the start of the workshop.

The UN leader said they had “a fruitful and wide-ranging conversation” in private and that he thanked the Pope for accepting his invitation to address the UN General Assembly in New York on September 25.

The two talked about climate change and unsustainable development and how they often drive people to migrate in very dangerous situations because they “are looking for a better future.” […]

Focusing on getting religious leaders onboard was key because climate change and its impact on people’s health, security, food supplies and future make it “a moral issue. It is an issue of social justice, human rights and fundamental ethics,” Mr Ban said. […]

“Let the world know that there is no divide whatsoever between religion and science on the issue of climate change.” [more]

UN looks to religions for ‘moral leadership’ on climate change

Technorati Tags: United Nations,global warming,climate change,religion,poverty

Saturday, May 9, 2015

Wildfires

California's four-year drought has already cost the state billions of dollars and placed thousands of jobs at risk. Now scientists say it has the potential to strengthen wildfires that could destroy homes, affect watersheds and cost hundreds of millions of dollars to extinguish during the warm summer months.

"We are seeing wildfires in the United States grow to sizes that were unimaginable just 20 or 30 years ago," U.S. Forest Service Chief Tom Tidwell told lawmakers this week. "We expect 2015 to continue the trend of above average fire activity."

In part because of the increased risk caused by drought, the Forest Service anticipates spending as much as $1.7 billion and mobilizing more than 10,000 people to fight wildfires this year. More than 120 wildfires have occurred on National Forest land in California already this year, according to a Forest Service spokesperson.

Climate change, at least in part, lies at the heart of growth in both the frequency and severity of wildfires in recent decades. Higher temperatures have left forests throughout California dry and flammable, according to Wally Covington, a forest ecology professor at Northern Arizona University. Tree death, another product of the drought, has also increased the chance of wildfire. More than 12 million trees in California forests have died and more are expected to do so soon, according to a Forest Service report.

Widespread tree death can be described as a 20-year "sequence of flammability," Covington said. First, dead needles on pine trees dry up and start a period of "extreme

Tuesday, May 5, 2015

Why we can’t stop it.

Annual CO2 emissions between 1990 and 2030 for the European Union, United States, and China. The projected emissions of the European Union, United States and China in 2030 are presented. We estimate that the collective annual emissions from this group were 21.1 Gt CO2e in 2010. The emissions from this group are projected to be 22.3 Gt CO2e in 2030 in the case where China’s annual emissions peak in 2030, and 20.9 CO2e in 2030 if the peak is in 2025. Graphic: Boyd, et al., 2015

By Chelsea Harvey
4 May 2015

(Washington Post) – When it comes to combating climate change, many scientists and policy makers focus on one major goal: cut carbon emissions enough to keep the planet’s average surface temperature from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius above its pre-industrial level.

But a new analysis [pdf], published on Monday by the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, said we’re still falling short of the mark.

For years, the 2-degree target has been touted by experts as a kind of climate threshold: By staying within its confines, many argue, we can keep the planet in relatively stable condition and avoid the most dire effects of global climate change.

Currently, world leaders are developing concrete emissions reduction goals in preparation for this December’s U.N. climate change conference in Paris, where they’ll ultimately draft an international agreement to combat climate change with the goal of staying within the 2-degree mark. By contrast, if world nations were to do nothing — in other words, if we stuck to a “business as usual” trajectory — experts believe our climate could warm more than 4 degrees by the end of the century.

Three of the most heavy-hitting emissions reduction targets have already been declared by the United States, the European Union and China. The United States has resolved to reduce its carbon emissions by 26 to 28 percent below its 2005 emissions levels by 2020, and the European Union has vowed that by 2030 it will collectively cut its emissions by 40 percent compared to its 1990 levels. Meanwhile, China has claimed its carbon emissions will peak by 2030.

But according to the Grantham report, these resolutions, combined with the rest of the world’s projected future emissions, will probably not be enough to keep Earth within the 2-degree boundary.

“In thinking about where we’re going, it’s important to have an assessment now of what the sum total of those commitments might add up to,” said co-author Nicholas Stern, chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and president of the British Academy.

Stern and his co-authors Rodney Boyd and Bob Ward, also of the Grantham Research Institute, calculated what global greenhouse gas emissions will be in 2030 based on the announced targets from the United States, the European Union and China, as well as energy use estimates for the rest of the world published by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Then, they compared these calculations with a report from United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) describing the kinds of emissions pathways that might allow the world to reach its 2-degree target.

The authors found that if the United States, the European Union, and China stick to their resolutions, their combined emissions in the year 2030 will be between 20.9 and 22.3 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent. (A gigaton is a billion metric tons.) And their estimate for the rest of the world’s emissions came to about 35.4 gigatons, meaning total global greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 could exceed 57 gigatons.

But according to the UNEP report the authors used for comparison, global emissions in 2030 must be below 48 gigatons if we want even a 50 percent chance of hitting the 2-degree mark. (What matters is not precise emissions in 2030, but rather what emissions pathway the world is on by then, with emissions in 2030 taken as a representation of that.)

In other words, on our current trajectory, we’re unlikely to make it. [more]

Report: Global emissions goals still aren’t enough to prevent dangerous warming